The 27-nation European Union is one of the main catalysts for
international economic exchanges, including migration. Its prospects of
growth and employment have a direct bearing on global migration flows.
What is happening in Europe today is therefore one determining factor
for international migration flows in the coming years.
In fact, as OECD Secretary General Angel Gurría says, labour market
developments and migration flows are closely linked. "The decline in
labour demand has been the driving force behind the fall in migration
during the crisis, not restrictions imposed by migration policies, as
our
2012 International Migration Outlook shows," he said presenting the report in Brussels on June 27.
"Countries should therefore pay more attention to their long-term
labour market needs, focus on skills and devise policies for the
integration of migrants, particularly the young, whose competencies will
be needed as the global economy recovers," he added.
The OECD report finds that the global financial and economic crisis
and the subsequent Great Recession had a tremendously negative impact on
employment globally. Migrants, along with youth, were particularly
affected by the global jobs contraction – and even more so young
migrants. The impact was so strong, that migration flows into OECD
countries experienced important declines during 2008 and 2009.
In 2010, migration inflows declined again, for a third year in a row.
However, as the recovery started gaining momentum in several OECD
countries, this decline was modest (of around -3% compared to 2009) and
the number of migrants in the 23 OECD countries measured (plus Russia)
totalled just over 4.1 million, a higher number than in any year prior
to 2005. The preliminary figures for 2011 show that immigration flows
started to increase again in 2011 in several OECD countries." We will
have to see if this trend holds, given the new bout of economic
weakness," said Gurría.
Interestingly, these new increases are not related to the
particularly hard times that some Southern European countries are going
through. In fact, emigration from countries like Greece, Italy, Portugal
and Spain increased only very modestly.
Free mobility of labour
A second key message of the study, said Gurria, is that free mobility
of labour enhances its adaptability to changing labour market
conditions.
"Take the case of Europe. Free mobility within the region accounted
for much of the overall decline in immigration inflows since 2007,
almost half a million. Still, free mobility continues to account for
almost 40% of migration flows into the European OECD countries," the
OECD head pointed out.
This issue of free mobility and its broader implications for the
labour market is at the heart of another OECD publication on migration
released on June 27: 'Free Movement of Workers and Labour Market
Adjustment - Recent Experiences from OECD countries and the European
Union'. This study shows how free mobility favours the labour markets
adaptability to changing conditions or downturns, and portrays it as a
great advantage.
Referring to the salient features of the '2012 International
Migration Outlook', Gurria said. the decline in intra-EU migration flows
in the post-crisis period has not been driven by policy restrictions,
but rather the decline in demand for labour. "This important lesson is
reflected in the experience of countries like Sweden, which fully opened
up its labour market for migration in 2008 but did not experience a
strong increase in labour immigration. This should make us think twice
before we consider closing the doors to immigration as an adequate
answer to unemployment."
Demographic change
Another determinant factor for migration policies is the demographic
change, said Gurria. "It is highly important to gauge the implications
of the current crisis on migration flows and to review our policies
under this challenging dynamic. But it is also crucial that we take into
account longer term trends, like the demographic transformations in our
societies. And this is not just a question of how many new workers
there are to replace those who retire. As the 2012 International
Migration Outlook reflects, labour markets are changing too rapidly to
consider demographic imbalances alone as a reliable indicator of future
occupational needs."
The report projects that by 2015, immigration – at the current level –
will not be sufficient to maintain the working age population in many
OECD countries, especially in the EU. But the coming labour and skills
shortages are not a simple function of demographic imbalances, they also
depend on the changing nature of demand for particular skills and the
extent to which they can be filled from existing sources of supply.
"The links between occupational growth and decline, demographic
imbalances and the need for immigrant workers are therefore far from
obvious," noted Gurria.
Over the past decade, new immigrants represented 15% of entries into
strongly-growing occupations in Europe, and 22% in the United States.
They are thus playing a significant role in responding to labour demand
in the most dynamic sectors of the economy. Many jobs which migrants are
entering are new jobs, while many jobs from which older workers are
retiring are being cut.
But even in occupations where overall employment is declining, there
is still recruitment. New immigrants account for around 25% of new
entries in these occupations in Europe and the United States, as these
jobs are often less attractive to native workers. In other words, labour
migration is not so much about replacing retiring workers, but about
satisfying the changing needs of the labour market.
According to Gurria, one particularly interesting trend analysed in
the latest International Migration Outlook is the changing role of Asia
in international migration:
Migration dynamics in, from and to Asia are becoming more and more
important for OECD countries. Asia's share in migration flows to OECD
countries has grown impressively: In 2010, Asia has been the leading
source region of new migration and accounted for 35% of all immigration
flows. This represents more than 1.8 million persons, an increase of 56%
over 2000.
According to the report, the share of migrants from Asia among
immigrants to OECD countries rose from 27% in 2000 to 31% in 2010, with
China alone accounting for about 10%. China and India between them also
account for 25% of international students in OECD countries. In the
long-term, as Asia develops and offers more attractive jobs locally and
itself attracts more skilled workers from abroad, OECD countries will be
less able to rely on this steady stream of skilled workers.
"So if OECD countries want to rely on a steady stream of skilled
workers from Asia in the future, they must take steps to maintain or
rather improve their attractiveness as a destination for Asian skilled
workers and students," averred Gurria.
